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Annual consumer price inflation plunged to a lower-than-expected 4.6% in October from 6.7% in September, official data showed on Wednesday. The Bank of England's forecasts and the consensus from a Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 4.8%. Sterling fell slightly against the dollar after publication of the data, which showed key inflation measures watched closely by the BoE also falling by more than expected. Investors added to their bets on BoE rate cuts next year with three 25-basis-point reductions in Bank Rate fully priced in by December 2024, and a first cut fully priced for June. Reporting by Andy Bruce and David Milliken, editing by William James and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sterling, BoE, Julien Lafargue, Sunak, Huw Pill, Hugh Gimber, Andy Bruce, David Milliken, William James, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bank of England, of, ONS, Barclays Private Bank, Conservative Party, U.S ., Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Britain, Italy

☆ A rate cut will be bad news for stocks, JPMorgan warns — and outlines where to invest
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, Gimber believes Fed cuts in 2024 would likely coincide with declining corporate earnings, creating headwinds for stocks. Analysts are predicting 12% earnings growth for the S & P 500 as a whole in 2024. A further rate cut is also being priced in by November next year, according to data from CME's FedWatch Tool . "You have this disconnect at the moment: 12% earnings growth expected for next year and still the Fed expected to cut multiple times. It's about resilience in equities," Gimber said.

Persons: Hugh Gimber, Gimber, CNBC's, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asset Management, –, Catalyst, JPMorgan, Treasury Locations: Brazil, Mexico, South Africa

☆ A rate cut will be bad news for stocks, JPMorgan warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA rate cut will be bad news for stocks, JPMorgan warnsA cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve next year is likely to be bad news for U.S. equity investors, according to Hugh Gimber, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Persons: Hugh Gimber Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Asset Management

☆ Earnings growth and rate cuts can't happen at the same time: strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email12% earnings growth and multiple Fed rate cuts 'can't both happen at the same time': StrategistHugh Gimber, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan, discusses the outlook for U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve monetary policy and how this could impact equity markets.

Persons: Hugh Gimber, Morgan Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve

A day after Britain's fast pace of price growth unexpectedly slowed, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by the narrowest margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. But rate futures suggested they still saw a 50% chance of Bank Rate rising to 5.5% by the end of this year. Britain's economy, hit hard by Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in gas prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has been struggling with the highest inflation rate in the Group of Seven. But growth remains fragile, heightening the risk that the BoE's 14 back-to-back rate hikes will push the economy into a recession. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates but suggested its move might be the last for now.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Jon Cunliffe, Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, BoE, Reuters Graphics Sterling, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Peter Nicholls, Frances Haque, Reuters Graphics Bailey, Yael Selfin, Hugh Gimber, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters Graphics, U.S ., MPC, REUTERS, Santander UK, IF, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, KPMG, Investors, Bank of, Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, London, Britain

☆ Reactions: Bank of England bashes pound after halting rate rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Investors had already rushed on Wednesday to reel in their bets on further UK rate rises after data showed UK inflation cooled surprisingly quickly in August. Against the euro , the pound was down 0.5% at 86.74 pence, having traded around 86.70 pence before the decision. "The MPC still refers to its flexibility to react should things change, but the chances are this could be the peak in this UK interest rate cycle." "However, there is a risk that the ‘lag effect’ on interest rate hikes means that today’s decision may not be felt for another 9 to 12 months."

Persons: Hollie Adams, Sterling, THOMAS, Huw Pill's, HUGH GIMBER, PHILIP SHAW, DOUGLAS GRANT, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, FRANCES HAQUE, JOE TUCKEY, RICHARD GARLAND, GILES COGHLAN, BoE, stagflation, Amanda Cooper, Dhara Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, London, Investors, Bank of, Bank, MPC, SANTANDER, LONDON, Core CPI, PMI, CPI, EMEA, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, London, MANX, EUROPEAN, FRANCE, GROUP, OXFORDSHIRE

Workers walk through the Canary Wharf financial district, ahead of a Bank of England decision on interest rate changes, in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. The unemployment rate rose, the number of people in work fell sharply and vacancies dipped below 1 million for the first time in two years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday. Yet if incoming data doesn't turn definitively, another hike to a terminal rate of 5.75% is absolutely on the table." The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the three months to July from 4.2% a month earlier, its highest since the three months to the end of September 2021, the ONS said. Including bonuses, pay rose by 8.5% compared with the 8.2% consensus, boosted in part by backdated pay for healthcare workers.

Persons: Toby Melville, BoE, Hugh Gimber, they've, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Andy Bruce, David Milliken, Sachin Ravikumar, David Holmes Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Bank of England, National Statistics, Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, London, Britain

REUTERS/Henry NichollsLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Britain now has western Europe's highest rate of consumer price inflation after it fell by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, official data showed on Wednesday. Despite falling in March, Britain's inflation rate was the highest in western Europe and the only country in the region to post a double-digit number for last month, after Austria recorded a higher inflation rate in February. Last month the BoE said it expected inflation to "fall significantly" in the second quarter. In February, the BoE had forecast March inflation of 9.2%. Inflation in prices charged by manufacturers fell sharply in March to its lowest since October 2021 at 8.7%, down from 11.9% in February, largely reflecting a drop in oil prices.

☆ UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure holding above 10%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

City workers in Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is based, in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, March 2, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesU.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and energy bills. The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive down inflation.

☆ Fed is now dependent on growth data, not just inflation data, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed is now dependent on growth data, not just inflation data, strategist saysHugh Gimber, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, explains why that's important for multi-asset investors.

☆ Analysis: European stocks lure global investors as rate hikes hurt U.S. more
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Banks (.SX7P) accounted for nearly 16% of the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) and have benefited from the high-rate environment, gaining nearly 20% to hit their highest in almost five years. In contrast, 35% of the S&P 500 (.SPX), the world's largest index by market value, are technology companies. Tech stocks (.SPLRCT) on the index have gained just 9% this year as rising rates make future profits for tech companies less valuable. CHEAPER IN EUROPEOn the valuation front too, the European stock market is much cheaper than the U.S. The STOXX 600 trades at about 13 times its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio, while the S&P 500 trades at some 18 times.

☆ U.S. and EU are playing 'policy tennis' over green subsidies, says JP Morgan Asset Management
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. and EU are playing 'policy tennis' over green subsidies, says JP Morgan Asset ManagementHugh Gimber, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, says Europe will compete with the United States by offering generous green subsidies to companies in an effort to keep them on the continent.

The Euro STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.4%, recovering from its worst session in almost two weeks a day earlier. Shares in London (.FTSE) were up 0.8% and markets in Paris (.FCHI) and Frankfurt (.GDAXI) gained around 0.2%-0.3%. Hopes of faster easing of China's strict restrictions rose after an official said they will continue to fine-tune policy to reduce the impact of its "Zero COVID" on society. The sudden bout of optimism on China combined with talk of possible output cuts by OPEC+ to help oil prices rally. Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms.

☆ British government to usher in new era of austerity in effort to restore market confidence
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We're going to see spending cuts," Hunt told the BBC on Sunday, while also promising the government would deliver a new and more focused plan to help with household energy bills beyond April. First, an increase in council tax with local authorities allowed to raise the level of council tax above 3% without a referendum," Raja said. "And second, an increase in both the duration and scale of the windfall tax on oil and gas 'excess profits'." Spending cuts, again executed via "stealth," could take the form of "nominal cash freezes to departmental budgets," Raja said, with spending budgets topped up minimally going forward. "If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal tightening.

☆ UK Finance Minister Hunt faces difficult call between economics and politics: JPMorgan's Gimber
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK Finance Minister Hunt faces difficult call between economics and politics: JPMorgan's GimberHugh Gimber, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, reacts to the U.K.'s third-quarter GDP contraction and discusses the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy in the country and around the world.

☆ The pound slides after soaring food prices drive UK inflation back to a 40-year high of 10.1%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The British pound fell below $1.13 Wednesday after UK inflation hit 10.1% in September. Soaring food and housing costs helped drive inflation back to the 40-year high hit in July. The biggest rise in food prices since 1980 helped push the inflation rate back into double digits, the ONS said. "The uptick in food prices will be of particular concern," he added. Signs of prices rising beyond core areas is a warning sign for the likelihood of an economic slowdown.

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